AFM知識點匯總—APV原理&優缺點、海外投資項目的 government & business factors

原理：將投資決策和融資決策分開來考慮。允許公司評估項目損益，根據新的融 資方式。這樣，在估算時，先僅僅考慮商業風險（用 Kei 折現）；其次才考慮債 務融資和補貼貸款帶來的好處(節稅，省息）。這樣公司可以評估投資活動的價值， 以及因融資方式帶來的好處。

APV method separates the investment decision from the financing decision. This will allow company to evaluate the gain or loss associated with the costs and benefits of the new finance.

The value of the project is initially assessed considering only the business risk involved in undertaking the project. The discount rate used is based on the asset beta which measures only the business risk of that company.

The impact of debt financing and the subsidy benefit are then considered. In this way, the company can assess the value created its investment activity and then the additional value created from the manner in which the project is financed.

優點：

1.不同資金不同折算率，商業風險用 Kei,金融風險用 Kd。It allows each different type of cash flow to be discounted at a rate specific to risk of that cash flow.

2.當融資情況較復雜時，此法適用 It also allows the effects of more complex financing situations to be considered

缺點： 

Kei 是用 CAPM 計算得來，所以有 CAPM 的理論缺陷。Discounted rate used in base on CAPM, which has number of theoretical weakness.具體是那些不現實的假設： Zero insolvency costs 零破產成本；投資市場有效；投資人有多樣化的投資組合； 完美資本市場；且很難確定 excess return, risk free rate & B 值。

結合案例：

1. 政權更迭，導致目前的稅率變化，補貼貸款政策變化；

2. 需要計算如果稅率或借款利率變化多少，會讓項目的 APV 轉成負值。

3. 新政府是否有 remittance 限制？這樣折現率不同，導致項目 APV 變化。

4. 考慮項目是否存在 real option，來給項目帶來額外的價值。

5. 拓展計劃是否符合公司 Strategy?

6. 管理層是否有海外拓展經驗？過去的項目的成功率多少？

7. 結合測算數據看，是否延期開展會有更好的價值？

8. 建廠是否會導致當地人民遷徙，是否存在環境和責任方面的顧慮?