China's economic growth slowed slightly in the first quarter, but inflation accelerated to a nearly three-year high in March. The country's gross domestic product rose 9.7% from a year earlier in the first quarter, data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics show, down marginally from the 9.8% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2010. Meanwhile, the consumer price index rose 5.4% from a year earlier in March, up from 4.9% in February and the fastest since July 2008. Economists react:

　　中國一季度經濟增長略有放慢，但3月份通貨膨脹加劇，達到接近三年以來最高。國家統計局周五公布的數據顯示，一季度國內生產總值(GDP)較上年同期增長9.7%，略低于2010年第四季度9.8%的增長率。與此同時，3月份居民消費價格總水平(CPI)較上年同期上漲5.4%，高于2月份的4.9%，并且是2008年7月份以來的最大上漲幅度。以下是經濟學家的點評：

　　The Chinese economy is not slowing as planned, or desired, with GDP expanding 9.7% year-on-year in the first quarter to 9.63 trillion yuan. The strong economic performance through Q1, despite the myriad tightening measures put in place over the past six months, should give policymakers confidence to more aggressively attack inflation and its root causes. Indeed, with CPI jumping to a 32-month high, it is not hard to argue for further tightening. --Alistair Thornton and Xianfang Ren,

　　IHS Global Insight AFP/Getty新疆哈密市一個啤酒廠里的工人。一季度GDP同比增長9.7%至9.63萬億元，中國經濟并沒有按照計劃或者說愿望放緩。盡管過去六個月推出了大量緊縮措施，一季度經濟表現依然強勁，這應該會讓決策者有信心以更大力度抗通脹、鏟除通脹根源。事實上，在CPI增幅升至32個月最高的情況下，進一步收緊的結論不難得出。──Alistair Thornton、Xianfang Ren，IHS Global Insight

　　Both 1Q11 GDP growth and March CPI inflation were above street consensus... Our overall assessment is that economic growth is stable and robust, but inflation pressure is elevated (though definitely not out of control). The next peak of inflation will likely be in June at 5.5%-6%. The government raised tone on inflation-fighting, but also issued warning on over-tightening. Regarding market impact, most major data were leaked in the past two days, so informed investors should expect no shocks. Overall, we think investors should remain cautious as the Chinese government itself sees many uncertaintiesâ  CPI dropped 0.2% MoM in March due to seasonality. Usually it should drop more in the post-(Lunar New Year) holiday time from February to March, and that's why policymakers are a bit nervous about inflation pressures and they raised tone on inflation fighting this week. --Lu Ting, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch .

　　2011年一季度GDP增速和3月份CPI漲幅都高于預期。……我們的總體判斷是，經濟增長是穩定、強勁的，但通脹壓力已經升高（不過肯定沒有失控）。下一個通脹高峰可能會是在6月份，通脹率在5.5%到6%之間。政府抬高了抗通脹的聲調，但也警告不要過度緊縮。在市場影響方面，多數重要數據都已經在過去兩天泄露，所以有了解的投資者就別指望有什么沖擊。總體來講，我們認為投資者應該謹慎行事，因為中國政府自己也認為存在很多不確定性。受季節性因素影響，3月份CPI環比下降0.2%。一般情況下，因為過了春節，3月份CPI較2月份應該下降更多，正是因為這個原因，決策者對通脹壓力顯得有些擔心，并在本周調高了抗通脹的聲調。──陸挺，美銀美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)

　　Not much of a surprise in the data, though the activity numbers are perhaps a little stronger than expected, with little evidence to date that rate hikes, a stronger currency, and higher oil prices are having much of an impact on growth. Inflation of course, is the main issue in the short termâ 'we think price pressures will ease in the second half of the year, but there is still more upside in the next few months, and the risk is that high oil prices will keep headline inflation stronger for longer. This also suggests that policy rates still need to move higher in the months ahead, with Beijing also likely to favor further currency appreciation to help get inflation lower. --Brian Jackson, Royal Bank of Canada.

　　數據沒有什么出人意料的內容，不過反映經濟活動的數據可能比預期略顯強勁，而迄今少有證據表明利率上調、人民幣升值和油價升高對經濟增長產生了多大影響。通貨膨脹自然是短期內的主要議題。我們認為物價壓力將在下半年緩和，但接下來幾個月的上行風險更大，而且總體通貨膨脹率有可能因為高油價而上升更長時間。這也說明未來幾個月仍需上調政策利率，而北京也有可能傾向于讓人民幣進一步升值，從一個方面減弱通貨膨脹。──Brian Jackson，加拿大皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Canada)

　　China's inflation has been running at a high level for more than a year due to the post-financial crisis expansion of money supply, the rise in agricultural prices, the gradual feed-through of wage growth, and the impact of rising global commodity prices. Chinese policy makers are using a multi-pronged approach to curb inflation, including monetary tightening, administrative measures and accelerated currency appreciationâ The exchange rate has played only a secondary role in China's policy arsenal. However, last week, Premier Wen indicated that China will use all possible measures, including the yuan exchange rate, to keep prices under control. This constituted the first time the premier had publicly referenced the yuan's exchange rate as a mechanism to counter inflation --Polly Leung, J.P. Morgan.

　　中國的高通脹已經維持了一年多，原因有金融危機過后貨幣供應擴張、農產品價格上漲、工資增長逐漸傳導，以及國際大宗商品價格上漲的影響。中國政策制定者正在多管齊下地遏制通貨膨脹，包括貨幣緊縮、行政手段和人民幣更快升值。在中國的各種政策工具中，匯率只起到了輔助性作用。但國務院總理溫家寶上周暗示，中國將使用包括人民幣匯率在內的一切可用措施來控制物價。這是溫家寶第一次公開地把人民幣匯率當作一個抗通脹機制來說。──Polly Leung，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)

　　There was clearly a rebound in domestic demand growth in March, which was driven by the loosening of monetary and fiscal policies as reflected in stronger M2 growth. Such a rebound tends to increase inflationary pressures amid the continued strength in external demand growth and requires further tightening measures. Having said that, despite the loosening in March, the overall policy stance in 1Q2011 was still tighter than it was in 4Q2010 which led to the moderation in sequential activity growth and inflation in 1Q2011 from 4Q2010. --Yu Song and Helen Qiao, Goldman Sachs

　　3月份國內需求增長明顯存在反彈，這是貨幣和財政政策放松帶動的，從更加強勁的M2增長就可以看到。在外部需求持續強勁增長的情況下，這樣一種反彈往往會增加通脹壓力，需要采取更多緊縮措施。另外，雖然3月份有所放松，但2011年一季度的整體政策姿態仍然比2010年第四季度更緊，這導致2011年一季度的后續經濟增長和通貨膨脹增幅較2010年第四季度都有緩和。──宋宇、喬虹，高盛(Goldman Sachs)