The world has moved a step closer to a food price shock after the US government surprised traders by cutting stock forecasts for key crops, sending corn and soyabean prices to their highest level in 30 months.

　　世界朝著“糧價沖擊”靠近了一步。美國政府下調了主要農作物的儲量預測，此舉出乎交易員意料，推動玉米和大豆價格漲至30個月來最高水平。

　　The price jump comes after the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation warned last week that the world could see repetition of the 2008 food crisis if prices rose further. The trend is becoming a major concern in developing countries.

　　此前，聯合國糧農組織(FAO)上周警告，假如糧價進一步上漲，2008年的全球糧食危機可能重演。這一趨勢已讓發展中國家擔憂不已。

　　While officials are drawing comfort from stable rice prices, key for feeding Asia, they warn that a sustained period of high prices, especially in grains such as wheat, would hit poorer countries. Food price hikes have already led to riots in Algeria and Mozambique.

　　雖然作為亞洲主食的大米價格保持穩定讓官員們略感放心，但他們警告，糧價——尤其是小麥之類的谷物——長時間處于高位，將對較貧窮國家造成沖擊。糧價飛漲已在阿爾及利亞和莫桑比克引發騷亂。

　　“Stocks of corn and soyabean are at incredibly tight levels ... and the markets are surging to incredibly strong prices,” Chad Hart, agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said.

　　“玉米和大豆儲量異常吃緊……而市場價格正飆升至異常強勁的水平，”愛荷華州立大學(Iowa State University)農業經濟學家查德·哈特(Chad Hart)表示。

　　Agricultural traders and analysts warn that the latest revision to US and global stocks meant there was no further room for weather problems. The crops in Argentina and Brazil, to be harvested soon, look fragile due to dryness.

　　農產品交易員和分析師警告，對美國和全球糧食儲量的最新修訂，意味著今后不能再出現天氣問題。由于干旱，阿根廷和巴西收獲在即的作物看來將會歉收。

　　Traders are particularly concerned about the cost of vegetable oil, key for developing countries such as China where an emerging middle class is buying more frying oil. The US Department of Agriculture said the ratio of global stocks-to-demand would fall later this year to “levels unseen since the mid-1970s, reflecting an accelerated pace of vegetable oil” consumption for food and fuel.

　　交易員們尤其擔心植物油的價格。植物油在中國等發展中國家是一種重要食品，這些地區的新興中產階層越來越多地購買煎炸油。美國農業部表示，今年晚些時候，全球植物油儲量需求比將跌至“上世紀70年代中期以來的最低水平，反映出植物油消費的加快增長”。植物油既是食品，也用作燃料。

　　In Chicago, the price of soyabeans rose as much as 5.2 per cent to $14.20½ a bushel, the highest since late 2008. The USDA said that domestic stocks-to-demand would drop to the lowest point in nearly half a century.

　　在芝加哥，大豆價格盤中最高上漲5.2%，至每蒲式耳14.205美元，為2008年末以來的最高水平。美國農業部表示，美國大豆的儲量需求比將跌至近半個世紀以來最低水平。

　　Corn prices jumped 5 per cent to $6.37 a bushel, the highest level since July 2008.

　　玉米價格飆升5%，至每蒲式耳6.37美元，為2008年7月以來最高水平。