China’s trade balance swung to a deficit of $7.3bn in February as exports slowed during the Lunar New Year holidays.

　　由于春節長假期間出口增長放緩，2月份中國出現73億美元貿易逆差。

　　Although China is often criticised by US politicians for running a large trade surplus, this is the second time in the past 12 months that Chinese data have revealed imports outstripping exports. As the world’s largest consumer of commodities, China’s imports have ballooned in value as prices for raw materials rise.

　　中國經常因巨額貿易順差而受到美國政界人士的指責，但在過去一年里，這已經是中國第二次進口超過出口。作為全球最大的大宗商品消費國，由于原材料價格上漲，中國進口額出現了激增。

　　With many Chinese factories closing for up to a month during the holidays, the Customs Bureau cited Lunar New Year as a key factor in keeping exports low, a view echoed by analysts.

　　鑒于春節期間許多工廠都放了長假，有的甚至放了一個月，中國海關總署表示，春節是2月份出口額較低的關鍵因素。分析師也都認同這一觀點。

　　“I think we’re going to see a returned surplus in the near future,” says Alistair Thornton of IHS Global Insight. “None of the structural factors have changed, so [this trade deficit] is more likely to be a blip than a new normal.”

　　“我認為，中國貿易在近期內將回歸順差。”IHS Global Insight分析師阿利斯泰爾•桑頓(Alistair Thornton)表示，“所有結構性因素都沒有改變，因此貿易逆差更有可能是暫時現象，而不會成為新的常態。”

　　While Chinese export data are typically read as an informal barometer of the strength of the global economy, economists said the weak numbers – export growth fell to 2.4 per cent year-on-year in spite of some forecasts that it would be as high as 27.1 per cent – should not be taken at face value.

　　一般說來，人們會把中國出口數據當作全球經濟狀況的非正式晴雨表進行解讀，但經濟學家們表示，不能從表面金額來看待最新的疲軟數據。中國2月份出口同比增速降至2.4%，遠低于一些經濟學家預測的27.1%。

　　“During the several weeks following the Lunar New Year holiday, distortions affect exports much more than imports because exporters have a much greater tendency to take extended holidays,” said Yu Song, China economist at Goldman Sachs.

　　“在春節假期之后的幾周內，出口受到的影響遠大于進口，因為出口企業更傾向于延長實際假期。”高盛(Goldman Sachs)中國經濟學家宋宇表示。

　　The Shanghai Composite index closed down 1.5 per cent on Thursday, as bourses across Asia weakened on concerns about unrest in Libya.

　　上證指數周四收盤下跌1.5%，其他亞洲股市也普遍走低，主要是利比亞動亂引起投資者不安。

　　High prices of commodities such as iron ore and oil – which together accounted for more than $21bn of China’s imports last month – also play a big role in tipping the trade balance toward imports. In terms of volume, China’s imports of these commodities were relatively weak in February, but in value terms the imports still soared.

　　鐵礦石和石油等大宗商品價格高企，是導致中國國際貿易收支轉為逆差的另一大因素。以數量計算，2月份中國大宗商品的進口量并不高，但換作進口額就出現了激增。其中，鐵礦石和石油兩項的進口額超過210億美元。

　　Some economists suggested that the February data might be too distorted to be worth considering alone. “The big volatilities are purely a consequence of the holiday,” wrote Ting Lu, China economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Our simple and humble suggestion is to read the two months’ data together. Export and import growth in Jan-Feb came in at 21.3% and 36.0% year-on-year, higher than 17.9% and 25.6% in December.”

　　一些經濟學家認為，2月份數據可能扭曲得太厲害，不宜孤立解讀。“這么大的波動純粹是假期的結果。”美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)中國經濟學家陸挺寫道，“我們建議不妨把兩個月的數據放在一起解讀。1-2月出口和進口的同比增速分別為21.3%和36.0%，分別高于12月份的17.9%和25.6%。”