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China’s central bank raised interest rates for the fourth time in five months as the government struggles to reduce bank lending, rein in inflation and slow economic growth.
中國央行五個月來第四次加息,政府正努力減少銀行信貸、遏制通脹并放緩經濟增速。
The People’s Bank of China announced it would increase one-year rates by 25 basis points from today, raising the deposit rate to 3.25 per cent and the lending rate to 6.31 percent.
中國人民銀行宣布,從今天起,一年期基準利率上調25個基點,一年期存款利率升至3.25%,一年期貸款利率升至6.31%。
The increase came earlier than many analysts anticipated and suggested that price rises for March, to be published next week, were probably higher than expected. Consumer price inflation in China rose 4.9 per cent in February from a year earlier, the same reading as in January. But politically sensitive food prices accelerated and producer prices increased 7.2 per cent, their biggest rise since October 2008.
此次加息比許多分析人士預期的都要早,似乎表明將于下周公布的3月份價格指數大概會高于預期。2月份中國消費價格指數(CPI)增幅達到4.9%,與1月份持平。但具有政治敏感性的食品價格加速上漲,工業品出廠價格指數(PPI)增幅達7.2%,是2008年10月份以來的最大增幅。
Analysts remain divided on whether China’s economy is slowing or more action is needed to prevent overheating. The Chinese economy grew 10.3 per cent last year and Beijing has announced plans to bring the headline rate down while trying to encourage balanced and sustainable growth.
對于中國經濟增速是否在放緩、抑或政府是否仍需采取更多措施防止經濟過熱,分析人士仍然存在分歧。去年中國經濟增速達到10.3%,而政府宣布了旨在降低整體增速、同時試圖鼓勵平衡且可持續增長的計劃。
Tuesday’s rate rise “suggests that Chinese authorities are confident in the sustainability of underlying growth momentum”, according to Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)經濟學家王慶表示,周二的加息“似乎表明中國政府對于基本增長勢頭的可持續性充滿信心”。
Even after the latest increase in official rates, adjusted for inflation the return on bank deposits in China is negative. Beijing has prioritised the fight against inflation amid fears that runaway price rises could lead to social instability in the one-party state. “Inflation is like a tiger: once it is set free it is very difficult to put it back in its cage,” Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, said last month.
盡管央行再次加息,但經通脹率調整后的銀行存款回報率仍然為負值。在各方擔心價格上漲失控破壞社會穩定之際,中國政府已將抗擊通脹列為工作重點。中國國務院總理溫家寶上個月曾經表示:“通脹就像一只老虎,如果放出來就很難再關進去。”
The government predicts that headline inflation will peak around June or July. But official economists made a similar forecast at the start of last year and were proved wrong.
政府預計,整體通脹率將在6月或7月達到頂峰。但官方的經濟學家們去年初曾經做過類似的預測,而結果證明并非如此。
An overabundance of bank credit resulting from the government’s post-crisis economic stimulus package is the main cause of inflation, although officials also blamed “external factors” such as soaring oil prices.
政府在金融危機之后采取的經濟刺激措施導致銀行信貸過剩,是引發通脹的主要原因,盡管官員們歸咎于油價上漲等“外部因素”。
As well as raising rates, since the start of last year Beijing has increased the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve with the central bank nine times in an attempt to limit the amount they can lend. Large banks are now subject to required reserve ratios of at least 20 per cent.
除了加息以外,從去年初至今,中國政府已9次上調商業銀行的存款準備金率,試圖限制銀行的貸款規模。目前大型銀行的存款準備金率要求達到20%。
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