With its biggest uranium-mining deal at stake, China has kept its head during Japan's nuclear crisis while other investors in the sector have been losing theirs. It likely had little choice.

　　盡管中國最大的鈾礦收購交易正處于成敗關頭，但在日本核危機期間，雖然鈾交易領域的其它投資者失去了理智，中國卻保持了冷靜。但中國可能也是別無選擇。

　　China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holdings Co., or CGNPC, appeared to have scored a major coup when it struck a GBP756 million deal on March 7 to buy Kalahari Minerals. The deal put the Chinese in the box seat to secure access to one of the world's biggest uranium deposits in Namibia, as Kalahari's main asset is a near-43% stake in the mine's developer, Extract Resources.

　　中國廣東核電集團（China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holdings Co.，簡稱：中廣核）3月7日發起以7.56億英鎊收購Kalahari Minerals的交易時，該公司似乎已取得了重大成功。這宗交易讓中國處于有利地位，可獲取位于納米比亞的全球最大鈾礦床之一。Kalahari Minerals的主要資產是在這座鈾礦床的勘探公司Extract Resources持有近43%的股份。

　　However, the nuclear crisis in Japan following the devastating earthquake and tsunami on March 11 has triggered a collapse in uranium-mining shares that makes the Chinese deal look extremely overpriced. Kalahari shares last traded at 240 pence amid widespread worries over the outlook for nuclear power, versus CGNPC's offer for 290 pence each.

　　然而，3月11日日本強震和海嘯過后出現的核危機引發了鈾礦股價暴跌，這令中廣核的交易價格看上去被極度高估。Kalahari的最新股價是240便士，而中廣核的報價是每股290便士。全球對核電前景出現了廣泛擔憂。

　　CGNPC's stance also appears surprising as other deals in the sector are being renegotiated in favor of buyers. Russia's JSC Atomredmetzoloto was able to shave A$140 million off its original A$1.16 billion bid for Tanzania-focused uranium miner Mantra Resources due to the impact of the Japan quake, and still secure a recommendation from its target's board Monday.

　　在該領域其他交易正在朝著有利于買家的方向重新談判之際，中廣核的態度看上去也令人意外。受日本地震影響，俄羅斯的JSC Atomredmetzoloto得以將原先以11.6億澳元收購業務集中于坦桑尼亞的鈾礦勘探商Mantra Resources的報價降低了1.4億澳元，降低后的報價仍獲得了目標公司董事會的推薦。

　　What's driving CGNPC's thinking is probably fear. The nuclear-power generator knows that it caught the market napping with its surprise offer. Many investors had expected Rio Tinto to be a suitor for Kalahari, given it already owned 11.50% of the company and its producing Rossing uranium mine is just a few kilometers away from Extract's Husab deposit in Namibia. By walking away, CGNPC would give Kalahari's board the chance to drop its support for the bid and talk to Rio.

　　 主導中廣核思維的可能是擔憂。中廣核知道自己的突然報價令市場出其不意。許多投資者原本預計力拓（Rio Tinto）會收購Kalahari，因為力拓已經持有該公司11.5%的股份，而力拓運營的Rossing鈾礦離Extract Resources在納米比亞的Husab鈾礦只有幾公里遠。如果此時撤出收購，中廣核可能會給Kalahari董事會一個機會放棄支持自己的出價，轉而同力拓談判。

　　CGNPC's reluctance to renegotiate may also reflect a belief that the current worries about nuclear power--especially in its home country--are overdone. China and India, which account for around half of the 479 new reactors planned globally, are unlikely to abandon the technology given the pressing need for electricity to maintain their growing economies and in the absence of cheap and plentiful alternatives.

　　中廣核不愿進行重新談判可能也反映了該公司認為目前對核電的擔憂（尤其是在中國）過頭了。在全球計劃新建的479座反應堆中，中國和印度就大約占據了一半。在迫切需要電力維系經濟增長且無法找到廉價豐富的替代能源的前提下，中國和印度不可能放棄核技術。

　　When Chinese companies weigh up strategic needs against valuations, it's strategy that usually wins. CGNPC's deal for Kalahari may no longer look a bargain, but that doesn't make it a bad bet.

　　中國公司權衡戰略需求和估值的時候，通常是戰略需求勝出。中廣核收購Kalahari的交易看上去也許并不便宜，但這并不表示它是一個糟糕的選擇。