One of the biggest impacts of the end of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program may be felt in the commodities markets, where the injection of liquidity has helped send prices of metals, grains and energy to multiyear highs.

　　美聯儲（Federal Reserve）債券購買計劃的結束會帶來諸多影響，其中大宗商品市場可能會受到最大的沖擊。流動性的注入已經將金屬、糧食和能源的價格推至多年來的新高。

　　Commodities are especially sensitive to Fed policies, as prices are driven by inflation expectations, which are closely tied to the Fed's every move. Also, these markets are much smaller in size than stocks and bonds, suggesting they tend to swing more in response to changing policies.

　　大宗商品對美聯儲的政策尤其敏感，因為價格受到通脹預期的驅動，而通脹預期又與美聯儲的每一步動作緊密相關。另外，這些市場的規模遠遠小于股市和債市，因而它們往往會隨著政策變動產生更大的波動。

　　As the Fed prepares to end its $600 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, or QE2, some money managers are preparing their own withdrawal.

　　在美聯儲準備結束其6000億美元的債券購買計劃（也就是QE2，量化寬松計劃）之時，一些基金經理也正為撤退做準備。

　　London-based Diapason Commodities Management SA, which oversees $9 billion in assets, is likely to cut back on some exposure to more-cyclical commodities, such as energy and base metals, if it thinks risk is increasing, said Sean Corrigan, Diapason's chief investment strategist.

　　Getty Images今年二月，芝加哥交易所的玉米期權交易員。大宗商品價格受通脹預期的驅動，而通脹預期又與美聯儲的每一步動作緊密相關。倫敦大宗商品管理公司Diapason Commodities Management SA首席投資策略師柯瑞根（Sean Corrigan）說，若公司認為風險在增加，也許會降低某些周期性更強的大宗商品的敞口，比如能源和基本金屬。該公司管理著90億美元的資產。

　　"We have had a one-way run for six months. We can't be too greedy," Corrigan said.

　　柯瑞根說，我們已經賺了六個月，不能太貪心。

　　Commodities under management, including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, have seen a record inflow of $48.8 billion since the Fed's QE2 announcement last August, with total managed assets in commodities hitting $412 billion by the end of March, according to Barclays Capital.

　　根據巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）統計，自美聯儲去年8月開始實施第二輪量化寬松政策以來，共同基金和交易所買賣基金等機構的大宗商品持倉流入資金達到創紀錄的488億美元，截止三月底，大宗商品持倉總額達到4120億美元。

　　Given how profitable and crowded the markets are, "once the liquidation begins, you don't know how far it will run," he said.

　　柯瑞根說，考慮到大宗商品市場的高額利潤和擁擠程度，一旦投資者開始套現了結，你不知道會發展到什么程度。

　　But other investors are betting that the Fed will be late in raising interest rates in order not to damp the nascent economic recovery. With cheap money circulating in the system, commodities still will be sought after as a risky asset.

　　不過還有些投資者押注，為避免沖擊剛剛起步的經濟復蘇，美聯儲會推遲加息動作。在廉價資金在系統中流動的情況下，大宗商品仍會被視為風險資產而大受歡迎。

　　"Let's face it, they are still going to go for a very low-interest-rate environment, which still creates big inflationary concerns," said Robert Holroyd, director of Commodity Strategies AG, a $200 million commodity fund.

　　規模達2億美元的大宗商品基金Commodity Strategies AG的負責人赫爾羅伊德（Robert Holroyd）說，讓我們面對事實吧，他們依然會選擇利率極低的環境，仍會引發大的通脹擔憂。

　　To get an indication of how heady markets have gotten, gold has notched five consecutive records, closing on Thursday above $1,500 a troy ounce for the first time. Silver is up 49% this year, closing in on its all-time nominal high hit in 1980. Both cotton and coffee prices soared to record levels this year. Gasoline prices have jumped 35% this year.

　　想了解市場到了多么沖動的地步，看看黃金就知道了。金價已經連續五次打破紀錄，上周四首次收于每金衡制盎司1500美元以上。銀價今年上漲49%，名義價格收于1980年以來的新高。棉花和咖啡的價格今年均飆升至創紀錄水平。汽油價格今年漲了35%。

　　Robust demand from emerging markets also is likely to provide some support for commodities.

　　新興市場旺盛的需求也可能會為大宗商品提供部分支持。

　　But commodities also are likely to face headwinds in emerging markets, where inflation is running high. As China and India become determined to combat inflation, "it is dangerous to be long commodities," said Russell Napier, global macro strategist for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. "Many investors have probably misread the political risk associated with commodities."

　　不過大宗商品也可能會面臨新興市場的逆風，那里的通脹正日益高漲。里昂證券亞太區市場（CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)全球宏觀策略師納皮爾（Russell Napier）說，隨著中國和印度開始決心對抗通脹，長期持有大宗商品是危險的；許多投資者可能已經誤讀了大宗商品帶來的政治風險。

　　Instead of playing defensively, some investors look at the Fed's exit as an opportunity. At Liberty Trading Group, a Tampa, Fla., options seller, there has been an influx of new investment money over the past few months.

　　一些投資者未采取守勢，反而將美聯儲退出QE2當做一個機會。過去幾個月內，佛羅里達州期權賣方Liberty Trading Group一直有新的投資資金注入。

　　Liberty is selling calls, a bet that prices will fall, on behalf of its clients in gold, silver and coffee, which have all seen big rallies.

　　Liberty代表其黃金、白銀和咖啡客戶賣出買權，押注價格會下跌，這些商品一直都在大幅漲價。

　　"Our clients are coming to us as they want to get ready for QE2 ending, thinking that this rally has probably run its course," said James Cordier, the founder. -By Carolyn Cui, The Wall Street Journal; carolyn.cui@wsj.com

　　Liberty 創始人科爾迪爾（James Cordier）說，客戶找我們是想為第二輪量化寬松結束做準備，他們認為這種全線大漲的局面可能已經快到頭了。