A shortage of pigs is set to push China's consumer-price index to a new high, meaning a respite from inflationary pressure may be several months away.

　　中國的消費價格指數(CPI)漲幅很可能因為生豬短缺而走向新高，這意味著通脹壓力的緩解可能還要等上好幾個月。

　　The official data on inflation in June won't be published until July 15. But the early signs are that it will show the CPI popping above 6% year on year. That is far above the government's target of 4% and earlier forecasts by many investment-bank economists, who started the year predicting a peak of around 5%.

　　官方6月份通脹數據要到7月15日才會發布，但早期跡象表明數據將顯示CPI同比增幅突破6%，遠遠高于政府4%的既定目標，也高于早前很多投行經濟學家的預測。年初時他們預計CPI增幅將見頂于5%左右。

　　The proximate cause, once again, is food prices. End-of-June prices for pork, China's favorite meat, are up 67% year on year. Lu Ting, China economist at Bank of America, says pork alone will contribute 1.6 percentage points to June's CPI.

　　直接原因仍是食品價格。作為中國最受歡迎肉類的豬肉，6月底價格較去年同期上漲67%。美國銀行(Bank of America)中國經濟學家陸挺說，單豬肉一項就將為6月份CPI增幅貢獻1.6個百分點。

　　This isn't the first time pork prices have pushed the inflation index to worrying levels. In February 2008, a similar pork shortage sent prices soaring, the main factor behind inflation jumping to 8.7%.

　　這是不是通脹指數第一次因為豬肉價格而升至令人擔憂的水平。2008年2月，也是豬肉的短缺導致物價飆升，成為通脹率升至8.7%的主要因素。

　　The government's solution to the 2008 pig crisis -- subsidies that encouraged farmers to ramp up pork production -- has a lot to do with the causes of the current dearth. The surge in production that followed the subsidies in 2008 led to a collapse in pig prices in summer 2009. That in turn caused farmers to slaughter sows and reduce breeding.

　　為解決2008年豬肉危機，政府提供了補貼，鼓勵農民增加豬肉生產。這跟當前豬肉短缺的成因存在很大關系。2008年補貼后產量大增，結果使生豬價格在2009年夏季大幅下跌。這又導致農民屠宰母豬、減少飼養量。

　　Pork prices are now at record highs, which should strengthen incentives to increase production. But higher prices for output are only part of the equation for farmers. The price of corn, the major cost in the production of pork, is just as important.

　　豬肉價格目前處在前所未有的高水平，應當會使農民有更大的動力去增加產量。但對于農民來說，出欄價格上漲只是等式的一邊，作為豬肉生產主要成本的玉米價格也一樣重要。

　　Record corn prices in China, mainly as a result of growing demand for animal feed, have reduced profit for pig farmers. A ratio of 6 to 1 in the price of pork to corn is the minimum for farmers to break even. The number has hovered just above that level for much of the last year, and only moved significantly higher in the last month.

　　主要是因為動物飼料需求增長，中國的玉米價格達到從未有的高水平，這就壓縮了豬農的利潤。肉價至少要達到玉米價格的六倍，才能夠讓農民不賠不賺。這個比例僅略高于去年很大一段時間的水平，只是在上個月才明顯升高。

　　A fall in international corn prices should help alleviate cost pressures. But even as higher pork and lower corn prices improve incentives for farmers, pigs conceived today won't come to market until the first quarter of 2012. That means China's high inflation could be more persistent than investors expect.

　　如果國際玉米價格下降，那么成本壓力應當會在一個方面得到緩和。但是，即便豬肉價格上漲、玉米價格下跌增加農民養豬的動力，今天孕育的小豬也要到2012年第一季度才會抵達市場。這意味著中國的高通脹可能會比投資者預期的更加持久。