China’s inflation numbers released Tuesday showed prices increased 6.5 percent in the year to July with food inflation as high as 14.8 percent, causing stock market investors to fret that monetary conditions in China must continue to tighten. Pork prices rose almost 57 percent year on year – pork accounts for a third of the weighting of food prices in China’s CPI.

　　中國周二發布的通脹數據顯示，7月份消費者價格指數(CPI)同比上漲6.5%，其中食品價格同比增幅高達14.8%。占到中國CPI中食品價格權重三分之一的豬肉價格同比上漲近57%。這讓股市投資者擔心，中國的貨幣環境肯定會繼續收緊。

　　The silver lining just about visible amid the clouds is that pork will get cheaper as more pigs are rushed to market in coming months. India’s onion prices – similarly a bellwether of food inflation because of their widespread use in curries and lentil dishes – look more of a structural problem, however.

　　重重烏云中出現了一絲亮光：由于未來幾個月會有更多的豬肉進入市場，豬肉價格將逐漸回落。相比之下，印度的洋蔥價格則更像是一個結構性問題。在印度，由于在咖喱和扁豆菜肴中的廣泛應用，洋蔥扮演了食品通脹風向標的角色。

　　Onion prices doubled in some parts of western India last week because of the lateness of the monsoon. India’s food inflation was 8 per cent in July. Last month, the central bank raised interest rates by an unexpected 0.5 percentage points because, it said, inflation was unacceptably high. Economists said expectations among households of double-digit inflation had prompted the central bank to surprise the market with a big hike.

　　上周，由于雨季推遲，印度西部部分地區的洋蔥價格上漲了一倍。印度7月份食品價格上漲了8%。上月，印度央行意外宣布加息50個基點，央行對此的解釋是，通脹水平已經高到不可接受的地步。經濟學家表示，印度家庭的通脹預期已高達兩位數，這促使央行采取市場意料之外的大幅加息。

　　For both countries, bringing down food inflation is a high priority. But China has the easier challenge. In part, pork prices jumped because the government exacerbated the hog cycle by offering subsidies to pig farmers in 2008. When prices crashed, many farmers got out of the business. But higher prices have prompted them to return and prices are now expected to fall.

　　 對于中印兩國而言，降低食品通脹已成為當務之急。但中國面臨的挑戰要容易對付一些。豬肉價格大漲，在一定程度上歸因于中國政府2008年向養豬農戶提供補貼，從而導致“豬循環”惡化。在一次豬肉價格暴跌后，許多養豬戶洗手不干。但本輪價格上漲已促使他們重操舊業，就目前看來，價格應該會下降。

　　According to Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green, “China could well see another pig glut” in the second half of 2012.

　　渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)經濟學家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示，到2012年下半年，“中國的豬肉市場很可能會再一次出現供過于求的局面”。

　　India’s problems on the food front are more intractable. Supply chain problems – such as a lack of decent highways and refrigerated containers to move food – mean that roughly 30 per cent of fruit and vegetables rot before they get to market. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural productivity is much lower than China’s, partly because the government has for decades invested less than it should have done in supporting widespread adoption of drip irrigation, for instance, and partly because educational levels of its farmers lag well behind those of China’s.

　　印度的食品問題則更為棘手。該國的供應鏈問題——例如缺乏像樣的高速公路，以及運輸食品的冷藏貨柜——意味著，大約三成的水果和蔬菜在進入市場之前就已腐爛。此外，印度的農業生產力遠遠低于中國，部分原因是過去幾十年，印度政府在推廣滴灌等方面的投資力度沒有達到應有水平，同時也是因為該國農民的受教育程度遠遠低于中國農民。

　　Both countries’ share the problem of surging fertiliser prices as well as a sharp rise in rural wages in the past year or so. China’s has been caused by competition for labour with its factories while India’s has been brought on in part by a government rural job creation scheme that has worked too well, raising competition in the villages for farm labour.

　　兩國還面臨一個共同的問題：過去一年左右，兩國的化肥價格都出現了激增，農村地區工資水平也大幅提升。中國出現這一問題，是源于各工廠對勞動力的爭奪，而印度在一定程度上是由于政府的農村就業創造計劃進行得太過順利，導致農村對務農人員的競爭加劇。

　　Given rising incomes in both countries, food inflation may well be something consumers have to get used to. According to the United Nations, the average mainland Chinese citizen ate 49kg of vegetables in 1980; by 2003, that number had risen to 270kg. Some analysts are saying that the Indian government’s work creation scheme in rural India has pushed up demand for vegetables as poor Indians eat better. Given the structural problems in India in terms of both producing and transporting grains and vegetables, food inflation looks set to continue for some time.

　　鑒于兩國的收入水平都在不斷提升，食品通脹很可能是兩國消費者不得不去習慣的一種趨勢。根據聯合國(UN)的數據，1980年，中國內地公民全年的平均蔬菜消耗量為49公斤，到2003年，這一數字已升至270公斤。一些分析人士表示，印度政府在農村地區的就業創造計劃改善了印度窮人的膳食，由此提升了對蔬菜的需求。鑒于印度在生產和運輸谷物和蔬菜方面存在結構性問題，印度的食品通脹似乎仍將持續一段時間。

　　China, on the other hand, should vanquish food inflation sooner – if the Chinese government can resist exacerbating the peaks and troughs of the hog cycle.

　　而中國則應該會更快地化解食品通脹問題——如果中國政府能夠避免“豬循環”輪回惡化的話。