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After China’s invective on US debt at the weekend, it is easy to forget that Beijing deserves part of the blame for Washington’s fiscal mess, writes Simon Rabinovitch.
上周末,中國對美國債務問題進行了猛烈抨擊,這很容易讓人們忘記,中國政府在一定程度上也要對目前華盛頓的財政混亂負責。
It is hard to argue with China’s view that the US has been living beyond its means. But the addict wouldn’t have been so hooked without a generous dealer. China has been the main supplier of the cheap debt that the US has found to be such an irresistible drug.
中國指責美國沒有“量入為出”的觀點很難反駁。但若沒有慷慨的毒販,癮君子本不至于如此上癮。中國一直是廉價債務的主要供應者,美國無法抗拒這種“毒品”的誘惑。
The problem is not just that China is the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries with more than $1,100bn. More worrying is the rate of increase of China’s holdings, from less than $100bn a decade ago to the pile it has today.
問題不僅僅在于中國是美國國債的最大外國持有者,總共持有逾1.1萬億美元。更令人心憂的是中國持有量的增長速度:從10年前不到1000億美元到現在這個龐大數目。
That has made China the most important buyer of US debt over the past decade. It was knocked off its throne only briefly when the Fed stepped in to buy government bonds with its quantitative easing.
中國也由此成為過去10年里美國國債最重要的買家。只有當美聯儲(Fed)在定量寬松期間插手購買國債時,這一桂冠才短暫地旁落。
China’s largesse did not cause the global financial crisis. It did not cause US regulators to overlook subprime dangers. But it acted as a facilitator, enabling the US to enjoy ultra-low rates for a prolonged period that encouraged crazy risk-taking.
中國的慷慨并不是造成全球金融危機的原因,也不是美國監管部門忽視次貸風險的原因。但中國的所作所為的確起到了推手的作用,使美國能夠長期享受超低利率,由此助長了狂熱的冒險行為。
Xinhua began its commentary on Saturday thus: “The days when debt-ridden Uncle Sam could leisurely squander unlimited overseas borrowing appear to be numbered.”
新華社在周六一篇評論文章中開篇說道:“債臺高筑的山姆大叔能夠從容揮霍無止境海外借款的日子似乎不多了。”
Apart from the fact that such snarkiness hardly befits the official news agency of the second-largest economy, Xinhua was hypocritical in raising?the issue of “unlimited overseas borrowing” without questioning China’s hand in the vicious debt cycle.
且不論這樣尖刻的指責并不符合全球第二大經濟體官方通訊社的身份,新華社提出了“無止境海外借款”這個問題,卻絕口不問中國在這一惡性債務循環中所扮演的角色,這種態度十分偽善。
China’s bottomless appetite for US debt is a direct result of its own distorted currency regime, whereby it buys much of the foreign exchange streaming into the country in order to hold down the value of the renminbi, and in turn invests that foreign cash in US government bonds.
中國對于美國債務無止境的欲望,是其扭曲的匯率制度的直接結果——中國憑借其扭曲的匯率制度,大舉購入流入本國的外匯,以此壓低人民幣匯率,接著再用外匯投資美國國債。
This point has been made many times, but it bears repeating that a more market-driven renminbi would have produced a different outcome. China’s forex reserves would certainly have grown more slowly, and it is conceivable that the US trade deficit would have been smaller. The world economy would still have had problems, but it would have been on a somewhat more stable footing.
這一觀點已經被提到過多次,但值得再一次重復:如果人民幣更加以市場為導向,本可以產生不同的結果。中國外匯儲備的增長必然會慢一些,可想而知,美國的貿易逆差也會小一些。這樣,即便世界經濟仍然會存在問題,但立足點會更穩定一些。
Something constructive to come out of the US rating downgrade could be a stronger conviction in China that faster exchange rate reform is needed.
如果說此次美國信用降級帶來了一些建設性意義,那會是中國將更加堅定地相信,有必要加快匯率改革的步伐。
Xia Bin, an academic adviser to the Chinese central bank, said as much on his microblog, arguing that Beijing had no choice but to internationalise its currency.
中國央行的學術顧問夏斌在他的微博上表達了同樣的觀點。他表示,中國“必須追求人民幣國際化,這是必然的選擇,也是無奈的選擇”。
The central bank got off to a promising start on Monday, raising its daily fixing for the renminbi by the most in nearly a year and letting its exchange rate climb to a record against the dollar.
周一中國央行實現了一個充滿希望的開端,大幅上調人民幣中間價,漲幅為近一年來的最高水平,并允許人民幣兌美元匯率創下新高。
Is the biggest debt dealer finally cleaning up its act?
難道說,最大的債務“販子”終于開始要改頭換面了?
下一篇:中國保障房建設的裂縫(雙語)
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