While politicians in Europe, the US and most other developed economies struggle with the prospect of another downturn, China’s leaders are facing the opposite problem – how to stop their domestic economy from roaring ahead too quickly.

　　在歐美等多數發達經濟體的政界人士艱難應對經濟再次下滑的前景之際，中國領導人面對的卻是截然相反的問題，即如何阻止中國經濟過快猛增。

　　In an article on Thursday, Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, said reining in soaring consumer prices was the top priority for Beijing, as it had been for most of this year, and that China’s “macro-control and adjustment direction cannot be changed”.

　　中國總理溫家寶在周四發表的一篇文章中表示，遏制不斷飆升的消費價格仍是北京方面的首要任務（今年以來大部分時候一直是這樣），同時“宏觀調控的取向不能變”。

　　Most analysts believe Mr Wen is signalling Beijing’s reluctance to unleash another enormous stimulus package such as the one it launched in late 2008, and that China’s leaders feel the economy is robust enough for them to continue to dampen growth.

　　多數分析師相信，溫家寶發出的信號表明，北京方面不愿出爐又一套龐大的刺激計劃（中國曾在2008年末推出大規模刺激計劃），而且中國領導人覺得目前經濟相當穩健，足以讓他們繼續抑制增長。

　　After nearly a year of monetary tightening, the Chinese economy has responded almost exactly as the mandarins in Beijing wanted, with a gradual slowdown to a steady growth rate that reduces the chances of overheating and runaway inflation.

　　經過近一年的收緊貨幣政策，中國經濟的反應與北京的官員們所希望的幾乎一模一樣，逐漸放緩至一個穩定的增長率，降低了經濟過熱及通脹失控的幾率。

　　In fact, the global turmoil in recent weeks that has revived fears of a double-dip recession in the west has potentially made Mr Wen’s job of reining in the domestic economy somewhat easier.

　　事實上，近幾周來導致人們再度擔心西方出現雙底衰退的全球動蕩，有可能使溫家寶抑制國內經濟過熱的工作變得容易了一些。

　　In a sign that China is headed for a soft touch-down, the country’s official purchasing managers’ index climbed 0.2 points to 50.9 in August after falling for four months. A separate measure published by HSBC and Markit Economics came in at 49.9, up from 49.3 in July. A reading below 50 indicates contraction while a number above 50 indicates expansion.

　　中國經濟走向軟著陸的一個跡象是，8月份，中國官方的采購經理指數(PMI)上升0.2，至50.9，結束此前連續四個月的回落走勢。另外，匯豐(HSBC)和Markit Economics發表的中國采購經理指數8月達到49.9，高于7月份的49.3。讀數低于50表示經濟活動收縮，高于50則表示擴張。

　　Most economists have reduced their expectations for Chinese expansion this year in response to the deteriorating prospects in developed economies, although the predicted growth rate remains the envy of the world. UBS has lowered its forecast for growth in gross domestic product from 9.3 per cent to 9 per cent in 2011 from a year earlier and from 9 per cent to 8.3 per cent in 2012 because “the expected drop in developing markets growth will hurt China’s exports and related investment”.

　　針對發達經濟體前景惡化，多數經濟學家已調低了他們對中國經濟今年擴張幅度的預期，盡管他們預測的中國經濟增長率仍是令世界艷羨的。瑞銀(UBS)已將2011年中國國內生產總值(GDP)同比增幅從9.3%下調至9%，2012年增幅從9%下調至8.3%，理由是“發展中市場預期將出現的增長放緩，會損害中國的出口及相關投資”。

　　Persistent inflation, particularly for politically sensitive food prices, has been the top economic policy concern for Beijing since the start of the year; consumer inflation hit a three-year high of 6.5 per cent in July. However, the global gloom could provide positive news for China on this front too.

　　居高不下的通脹，尤其是具有政治敏感性的食品價格通脹，自今年初以來一直是中國政府在經濟政策方面的首要關切。7月份，中國消費價格通脹達到6.5%的三年高位。不過，全球悲觀情緒有望在這個方面也給中國帶來積極的消息。

　　“Broadly speaking, the decline in global demand will likely reduce commodity prices,” says Ma Jun, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank. “

　　大致說來，全球需求下降很可能壓低大宗商品價格，”德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)大中華區首席經濟學家馬駿表示。

　　Of course, the misfortunes of developed economies are not all good news for China.

　　當然，發達經濟體的不幸對中國也不全是好消息。

　　If US and European growth slows drastically, as it did in 2008, it would prompt a collapse in Chinese exports, causing domestic production and investment also to slump, and raise the possibility of a hard landing that would be exacerbated by recent tightening measures.

　　如果美歐經濟增長大幅放緩（就像2008年的情況那樣），那將引發中國出口劇減，進而導致國內生產和投資大幅下滑，硬著陸的可能性提高，而近期的收緊措施將使這一局面變得更為糟糕。

　　The official PMI data showed new export orders dropped significantly in August, but domestic orders made up for the slump to keep the new order sub-index at 51.1 for the month, unchanged from July.

　　官方的PMI數據顯示，8月份新的出口訂單顯著下降，但國內訂單彌補了缺口，使當月新訂單分類指數達到51.1，與7月份持平。

　　This was taken by some analysts as fresh evidence that the government is beginning to make headway in its goal to rebalance the economy away from an over-reliance on exports and more towards domestic demand.

　　這被一些分析師列為最新證據，證明中國政府正開始朝著自己的目標取得進展，即實現經濟再平衡，減輕對出口的過度依賴，在更大程度上轉向國內需求。

　　Economists say China is certainly less dependent on its export sector than it was when the global crisis hit in 2008, but top Chinese officials, including Mr Wen, freely admit that the economy is still far too reliant on investment.

　　經濟學家們表示，與2008年全球危機爆發的時候相比，現在中國對出口行業的依賴度肯定是下降了，但是，包括溫家寶在內的中國高層官員坦率地承認，中國經濟對投資的依賴度仍然過高。