Spare a thought for Little Sheep. Executives from the Hong Kong-listed hotpot chain discovered on Wednesday that they will have to wait another 60 days for a verdict from China’s Ministry of Commerce on the proposed buy-out by Yum! Brands of Kentucky. Many investors are not hanging around until Christmas Eve: the shares tumbled to an 18 per cent discount to the HK$6.50-a-share offer made six months ago. For the world’s second-largest economy, this is not nearly good enough.

　　關注一下小肥羊(Little Sheep)吧！這家香港上市火鍋連鎖集團的高管們周三獲知，自己必須再等上60天，才能等來中國商務部對百勝餐飲集團(Yum! Brands)——也是肯德基(Kentucky)的母公司——收購小肥羊計劃的審批結果。許多投資者等不到圣誕前夜了：小肥羊股價暴跌，比6個月前百勝給出的每股6.50港元的出價低了18%。對于中國這個全球第二大經濟體來說，這種審批速度真是夠嗆。

　　It is not that China’s antitrust regime is particularly tough. In the three years since the passage of the first Anti-Monopoly Law (AML), the ministry’s antitrust bureau has reviewed about 300 cases, blocked one (Coca-Cola/Huiyuan Juice) and imposed conditions on seven more – about in line with international norms. But advisers complain that the process is exceptionally hard to read. It can take weeks, if not months, for the ministry to accept submission of a filing, thus beginning Phase I. Apparently routine cases often proceed to the deeper scrutiny of Phase II. All the while, soundings from an unknowable assortment of state agencies are taken under Article 27 of the AML, which allows for consideration of the deal’s effects on “national economic development.”

　　并不是說中國的反壟斷法特別苛刻。中國首部反壟斷法出臺3年來，中國商務部反壟斷局總共審查了大約300起案件，阻止了一起，即可口可樂(Coca-Cola)收購匯源果汁(Huiyuan Juice)一案，附帶條件批準了7起——比例與國際慣例大致吻合。但企業顧問們抱怨稱，審查流程特別難以讓人看懂。商務部受理一起申報可能需要數周、甚至數月的時間。受理之后就進入了初步審查階段。看上去較為普通的收購案一般都能進入第二階段的審查。在整個過程中，各種名目不詳的國家機構都可以依據反壟斷法第27條進行調查，這一條款規定，審查中須考量收購案對“國民經濟發展”的影響。

　　The backdrop to this case – Yum’s very fast growth in China, the iconic nature of the Little Sheep brand – is by the by. What matters more is that the outcome of filings seems to be determined as much by celebrity support as by the rule of law. Diageo discovered as much in June, when, after 15 months of wrangling, it was granted approval to buy 4 per cent of a Sichuan spirits company just as Premier Wen Jiabao met his British counterpart, David Cameron. As year-end approaches, Yum chairman David Novak may want to call in a few favours.

　　本收購案的背景——百勝在中國市場上的迅速發展，以及小肥羊標志性的品牌形象——并不是關鍵。更重要的是：對審查結果起決定性作用的，除了法律因素以外，名人支持似乎比什么都管用。帝亞吉歐(Diageo)今年6月就發現了這一點。經過15個月的爭執后，該公司收購四川一家白酒公司4%股權的交易終于獲批，當時適逢中國總理溫家寶與英國首相戴維·卡梅倫(David Cameron)會晤。年關臨近，百勝董事長大衛·諾瓦克(David Novak)大概要四處托人了。